HOLD SPMO

Momentum is intact. Stay fully invested in the alpha engine.

MARKET REGIMENORMALRISK-ON

TARGET POSITIONSPMO 100%SPY 0 · BIL 0 · SH 0

RISK SCORE1 / 5LOW

↳

NEXT TRIGGERSPMO/SPY drawdown reaches −4%Then rotate from SPMO → SPY 100%

DISTANCE2.8pp

DEMO DATA

Illustrative research snapshot — not live market data and not individualized investment advice.

MODEL TIME · 16:00 ET

Decision ledger

Every observation must change—or confirm—the position.

Category	Current value	Status	X4 v2 interpretation	Impact
Market Regime	NORMAL	RISK-ON	Trend and momentum agree	SPMO eligible
SPMO / SPY Relative Strength	1.084	POSITIVE	SPMO leads the broad market	Keep alpha engine
Relative Drawdown · 20D High	−1.2%	INTACT	Above −4% breakdown line	No rotation
Relative 40DMA	+2.1% above	POSITIVE	Re-entry rule is satisfied	Favors SPMO
SPY · 10D Drawdown	−1.8%	CALM	Above −6% crash line	No defense
SPY · 20D Realized Vol	14.6%	NORMAL	Below 20% crash line	No defense
SPY vs 200DMA	+8.4%	ABOVE	Long trend remains positive	Risk-on allowed
200DMA Direction	+0.7% / 20D	RISING	Slow bear rule is false	No BIL
Credit · HYG / LQD	+0.4% / 20D	SAFE	Credit is not confirming stress	Risk −0

Why this decision?

The answer is SPMO because all three defense gates are off and relative momentum remains positive.

Relative momentumPOSITIVEKeep SPMO

Fast CrashFALSENo BIL

Slow BearFALSENo BIL

Hard BearFALSENo SH

LOGIC OUTPUTSPMO 100%

Wall Street risk sensor

1/5

Equity TrendSPY > 200DMA · slope rising

SAFE

CreditHYG/LQD stable

SAFE

Market BreadthNarrowing, not broken

CAUTION

USD / LiquidityPressure contained

SAFE

Inflation / RatesNo shock confirmation

SAFE

What would change my mind?

Rules are evaluated in priority order.

CURRENTSPMO 100%until one of these conditions is confirmed

IFSPMO/SPY relative drawdown ≤ −4%

Momentum leadership breaks

→

THENSPY 100%

IFSPY 10D drawdown ≤ −6% AND 20D vol ≥ 20%

Fast Crash is confirmed

→

THENBIL 100%

IFSPY < 200DMA AND 200DMA is declining

Slow Bear is confirmed

→

THENBIL 100%

IFAlready in BIL AND Risk Score ≥ 3

Hard Bear attack layer

→

THENBIL 80% · SH 20%